Well, it seems that at least one of those knuckle-dragging Neanderthals, Charles Blahous of the Mercatus Center, was absolutely correct on five counts:
Prediction #1: States will make a variety of decisions when it comes to expanding Medicaid.
- Proponents of Obamacare predicted that all 50 states would opt in to the expansion because the deal was too good to refuse.
- The fact: 27 states expanded their Medicaid programs, 21 did not, and 3 are debating whether or not to expand.
Prediction #2: Expanding Medicaid will cost states money.
- Proponents of Obamacare--especially the White House--claimed that expanding the Medicaisd would save money and improvestate budgets.
- The fact: States have already reported that their costs are higher than expected. For example, California is expecting an additional $1.2B in unexpected costs. Rhode Island will spend $52M more. Why? Medicaid sign-ups have surpassed estimates by 200%+.
Prediction #3: Obamacare will increase the deficit.
- Everyone remembers the White House--and the President himself--stating time and again that Obamacare would reduce the deficit.
- The fact: In its 2012 long-term budget outlook which demonstratred Obamacare reducing the deficit, the Congressional Budget Office explained, "Projections in this report are consistent with a statutory requirement that CBO, in its baseline projections, assume that benefit payments will continue to be made after trust funds have been exhausted, even if there is no legal authority to make such payments."
Prediction #4: Expanding insurance coverage will drive up consumption and costs.
- President Obama claimed that Obamacare would save money and reduce the use of emergency rooms.
- The fact: A recent Harvard University study has found that insurance enrollment has increased the use of emergency rooms, driving consumption and costs up.
Prediction #5: Projected Obamacare cost savings are unlikely to materialize.
- The proponents were absolutely confident: Obamacare would result in cost savings projections. They cited $750B in revenues and savings, including $69B in penalties collected from employers and individuals and $145B in Medicare Advantage cuts.
- The fact: President Obama has not enforced employer and individual mandates and the Medicare Advantage cuts have been scaled back.
Blahous ends up looking like a genius, not a knuckle-dragging Neanderthal. But, Blahous demurs, arguing that his predictions were nothing more than "common-sense analysis of easily-predicable effects."
Let the discussion begin...
To read Charles Blahous' article, click on the following link:
"I Was Right About the ACA."